End-to-end fiber

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Teleportation is unlikely to become a widespread mode of transport just yet. However, fiber-based internet has genuine potential to replace the physical movement of atoms (eg, business travel, couriers, doctor's visits, etc), with transmission of bits.

Last decade, the OECD governments measured their success with broadband uptake. Now they look to fiber, expecting even greater productivity boosts and GDP growth. In developed markets, this means fiber to the premises, often under government sponsorship, given that earlier regulation has removed the profits for fixed network re-investment.

The emerging market opportunity is even greater. Fiber-based backhaul boosts wireless broadband. By 2020, as the mobile teledensity in emerging markets is likely to approach 100%, ubiquitous fiber-based backhaul will make the internet available to the entire world's population. Watch it take off - the next one is a decade of fiber.

Pawel Grochowicz is a telecom consultant based in New Zealand 

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2020 at a glance

• Telco of one
• 20 billion connected devices
• Augmented reality
• End-to-end fiber
• Smart enablers
• Content conflicts
• Dumb pipes rule OK
• RIP ARPU and MOU
• RIP pay-TV
• LTE thrives, Wimax survives
• Rethink in approach to generating revenue
• The coming application store shakedown
• Only scratched the surface
• Low-cost 4G everywhere
• Big pipe – bigger apps

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